Have you noticed petrol keeps getting more expensive? Today, on August 18, the government raised petrol prices by Rs5.77 per litre (now Rs331.20) and diesel (HSD) by Rs6.47 per litre (now Rs390.42). Most people see this as bad news at the pump. But for refinery companies the businesses that turn crude oil into the fuel your car uses rising prices can actually mean bigger profits for them in the form of inventory gain. Let's break down why, using real numbers from four of Pakistan's listed refineries: Attock Refinery (ATRL), Cnergyico (CNERGY), National Refinery (NRL), and Pakistan Refinery (PRL).

Part 1: How These Companies Were Valued for FY2025

In plain words:

  • ATRL was the only company that actually made money in FY2025, and it's the only one that pays a dividend. Think of it as the "steady, reliable" one in the group.
  • CNERGY, NRL, and PRL all lost money in FY2025. That's why their P/E numbers don't mean much here you can't measure "years to pay back the price" when there's no profit to begin with.
  • CNERGY is the cheapest compared to what it actually owns its stock trades at just 0.36 times its book value. In simple terms, if you could buy the whole company and sell off everything it owns, you'd theoretically get much more than what the stock costs today. That usually means the market doesn't trust the company's near-term future or it means there's a bargain hiding, if things turn around.
  • NRL had the worst year of the four, losing nearly Rs186 per share. That's a big red flag for FY2025 but keep reading, because the story changes fast.

Part 2: The Big Turnaround 9 Months of FY2026

This is where things get exciting. Look at how profits grew quarter by quarter:

Every single company had its best quarter in Q3 no exceptions.

  • ATRL more than tripled its profit from Q2 to Q3, jumping from Rs33.46 to Rs106.41 per share. That one quarter alone made almost as much as the entire year before it.
  • NRL had the most dramatic comeback. After a rough FY2025 (a loss of Rs186 per share), it made Rs91.31 in profit in just Q3 alone. That's a huge turnaround story.
  • PRL's Q3 profit (Rs15.78) alone was bigger than what it lost in the entire previous year.
  • CNERGY, the smallest of the four, also improved steadily from a small loss in Q1 to its best-ever quarter at Rs2.68 in Q3.

Why did everyone do well at the same time? This isn't a coincidence. When fuel prices rise like the recent Rs5.77 and Rs6.47 hikes refineries that already bought crude oil at a lower price suddenly find the fuel they're selling is worth more. This is called an "inventory gain," and it boosts profits industry-wide. A weaker Pakistani rupee can add to this too, since refineries deal in dollars. So when you see fuel prices going up in the news, it's often a sign these companies are earning more, not less.

Big Update: PRL Just Released Its Real Annual Report for 2026

Here's something important Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL) has now released its actual annual report for 2026, and the numbers match almost exactly what we projected in the table above. PRL's real, confirmed EPS for FY2026 came in at Rs25.05, extremely close to our estimate of Rs25.56. This is a great sign for two reasons:

1. It confirms the turnaround story is real, not just optimistic guesswork.

2. It means our estimates for the other three companies (built the same way) are likely on the right track too.

Mark Your Calendars: Board Meetings Coming Up

Two more big companies are about to make things official. Attock Refinery (ATRL) and National Refinery (NRL) will both hold their board meetings on 25th August 2026. These meetings usually decide and announce the company's annual financial results, and sometimes dividends too. Given how strong both companies' 9-month numbers already look especially NRL's dramatic recovery these meetings will be worth watching closely for confirmation of the full-year performance and any dividend news.

So, What Does All This Mean for Investors?

1. The P/E and P/B ratios in the first table were based on year 2025. If Q3-level profits continue, these companies could look much cheaper very soon.

2. NRL is the biggest "comeback story." Going from a huge loss to strong quarterly profits is rare, and it's the reason to keep an eye on its August 25 board meeting.

3. ATRL remains the safest pick. It was already profitable, already pays dividends, and now its earnings look set to nearly double.

4. PRL has already proven the story is real with its confirmed annual report a good sign for how seriously to take the estimates for the others.

5. CNERGY is the riskiest but most exciting one to watch. It's the cheapest stock compared to what the company owns, and it's the most directly affected by daily fuel price changes like this week's hike. That means bigger potential rewards, but also bigger potential risks if fuel margins cool down later.

The Simple Takeaway

Pakistan's refinery sector went from a rough, loss-filled 2025 to a genuinely strong recovery in 2026, with every single company having its best quarter around the same time. PRL has already proven this with real, confirmed results. Now, all eyes turn to August 25, when ATRL and NRL hold their board meetings and we find out if the rest of the sector's turnaround story is just as strong.

 

Disclaimer: This blog is based on 2025 financial figures, PRL’s latest available FY2026 financial disclosures, and publicly available market news, including the August 18, 2026 fuel price hike reported by Business Recorder. It is intended to provide an educational overview of Pakistan’s refinery sector and help readers better understand its financial performance, valuation, profitability, and key industry trends not to provide investment advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.